$CMG Chipotle Mexican Grill Earnings Preview | TickerTrends.io
$CMG KPI Metrics, Earnings Preview Tracking, Expectations And Alternative Data Comps
Market Expectations
Analysts expect 9.02% YOY growth which is an acceleration of 3.53% QoQ going into Q1 2025.
Overall, Chipotle's Q4 2024 performance reflects solid growth in revenue and comparable sales, driven by increased transactions and strategic restaurant expansions. However, the company faces challenges from rising operational costs and inflationary pressures, which may impact future profitability.
Q4 2024 Financial Highlights
Revenue: $2.8 billion, a 13.1% increase year-over-year, though slightly below analyst expectations of $2.847 billion. GuruFocus
Comparable Restaurant Sales: Up 5.4%, driven by a 4.0% rise in transactions and a 1.4% increase in average check size. GuruFocus
Adjusted Earnings Per Share (EPS): $0.251, slightly surpassing the estimated $0.25, reflecting a 19% year-over-year increase. GuruFocus
Operating Margin: Decreased to 14.6% from 16.9% in the previous quarter, indicating pressure from rising costs. Reuters
Net Income: $331.8 million, up from $282.1 million in Q4 2023. GuruFocus
Operational Metrics
New Restaurant Openings: 119 new company-owned restaurants opened in Q4, with 95 featuring a Chipotlane drive-thru. GuruFocus
Digital Sales: Accounted for 34.4% of total food and beverage revenue in the fourth quarter. GuruFocus
Strategic Initiatives and Challenges
Cost Pressures: Food, beverage, and packaging costs rose to 30.4% of total revenue, up from 29.7% the previous year, due to increased ingredient usage and inflation. Labor costs also increased slightly to 25.2% of total revenue. GuruFocus
Pricing Strategy: Implemented a 2% menu price increase in December 2024, with the potential for further adjustments if inflation continues to impact costs. Reuters
Leadership Transition: Scott Boatwright officially became CEO in November 2024, succeeding Brian Niccol. Reuters
Full-Year 2024 Overview
Total Revenue: $11.3 billion, a 14.6% increase from 2023. GuruFocus
Comparable Restaurant Sales: Increased by 7.4%, driven by a 5.3% rise in transactions. Chipotle
Operating Margin: Improved to 16.9% from 15.8% in the previous year. GuruFocus
Restaurant-Level Operating Margin: Slightly decreased to 24.8% from 25.4% in the fourth quarter, indicating challenges in managing operational costs. GuruFocus
New Restaurant Openings: 304 new restaurants opened in 2024, including 257 with a Chipotlane. GuruFocus
Outlook
2025 Guidance: Chipotle forecasts annual comparable sales growth in the low to mid-single digits, below analysts' expectations of 5.6%, citing potential demand decline due to rising menu prices and inflationary pressures. Reuters
Commodity Costs: Facing higher costs for key commodities like avocados and beef, with potential tariffs on Mexican imports posing additional risks. Reuters
Alternative Data
Web Traffic
Recent data indicates a +10.42% MoM acceleration in web traffic.
Recent data indicates a +0.97% MoM acceleration in web traffic.
Mobile App Usage
Recent data indicates a -1.81% MoM slowdown in android usage.
Recent data indicates a -4.54% MoM slowdown in ios usage.
Reddits Subs
Recent data indicates a +64.31% MoM acceleration in reddit subscribers.
TikTok
Recent data indicates a +7.19% MoM acceleration in TikTok Viewership.
Social Followers
Recent data indicates a +55.85% MoM acceleration in instagram followers.
Search Trends
Recent data indicates a +6.04% MoM acceleration in search trends.
Conclusion
Chipotle closed out 2024 with solid topline growth and an impressive year-over-year gain in earnings, supported by higher transaction volumes and continued expansion of Chipotlane locations. However, the company’s Q4 margin compression highlights the ongoing challenge of managing inflationary pressures, rising input costs, and labor expenses. While 2025 guidance reflects a more cautious outlook, alternative data signals—such as a surge in web traffic, social engagement, and search trends—suggest strong underlying consumer interest and potential for continued brand momentum. If these forward indicators translate into sustained demand, Chipotle may outperform conservative expectations despite near-term margin headwinds.
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