Planet Fitness $PLNT Set to Flex Revenue Muscle into Q3
Alternative data signals summer surge in member engagement and revenue upside for Planet Fitness ahead of Q3 earnings
After a solid Q1 member gain of ~900,000, our data suggests Planet Fitness is entering Q3 with significantly stronger momentum this summer gym season, while Q2 will likely follow typical seasonality.
Mobile app usage trends are up YoY across both Android (+4.8%) and iOS (+5.9%), reversing softness from earlier in the year. Google Search and TikTok view trends have also picked up in June and July, showing sustained interest above +9% and +44% YoY, respectively. Web traffic is confirming the move, now up +9.9% YoY after a long stretch of declines.
This acceleration in consumer engagement lines up with several likely drivers:
Black Card Momentum: Planet Fitness recently made changes to its Black Card perks and pricing, including the introduction of a family add-on option. This may be helping retain existing members and encourage upgrades. Priced at $24.99+/month, search interest in this product directly translates to higher ARPU, thus worth paying close attention to.
Broader Fitness Tailwinds: A renewed post-summer fitness push is playing out online. Our TikTok data shows strong view growth for workout content and gym-related hashtags, which has historically coincided with membership gains.
“Gym” TikTok viewership Gen Z Momentum and Community Programs: Management noted Gen Z is the fastest-growing demographic, and programs like the High School Summer Pass are drawing in long-term users. Brand word‑of‑mouth is strong among younger members, who share their wins and routines on platforms like TikTok.
Bottom Line: What This Means for Q3
PLNT 0.00%↑ guided for “10% revenue growth” for the year, but our alternative data is flagging upside especially in the second half of 2025, given this summer traction we see. Given the sequential strength we're seeing across app usage, search, and social traffic, we believe management may raise guidance to the +11% to +12% range YoY. We think this because this membership growth has the double benefit of being higher ARPU customers, since the Classic Card price rose from $10 to $15/month for new members last summer. PLNT 0.00%↑ earnings on August 6 could very well surprise to the upside on their outlook.
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This is exactly the kind of alternative data analysis that traditional equity research often misses. The convergence of multiple data streams all pointing in the same direction (+44% TikTok views, +9.9% web traffic, +5.9% iOS usage) makes for a compeling bullish setup ahead of Q3. What really stands out is the qualitative shift - the Black Card family add-on at $24.99+ represents a fundamental change in ARPU trajectory that most analysts are still modeling linearly. Combined with the Gen Z cohort growth and High School Summer Pass creating a pipeline of future members, you're looking at both near-term upside and a multi-year secular growth story. The guidance raise to 11-12% YoY seems conservative given these metrics. Great work synthesizing these disparate data sources into a coherent investment thesis!