TickerTrends Social Arbitrage Fund Investor Letter History
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TickerTrends' March 2025 Performance Update
March was a challenging month for markets as tariff-related macro headlines weighed heavily on sentiment. The Social Arbitrage Fund returned -4.25%, outperforming the S&P 500’s -5.75% and the Nasdaq 100’s -7.69%.
In a market environment dominated by fear of future trend weakness rather than reaction to real-time alternative data, our Social Arbitrage strategy was tested. However, by proactively recognizing risk and reducing position sizing around earnings and volatile names, we managed to navigate the month with more resilience than broader indices.
Despite the challenge of a more macro-sensitive market, we adapted swiftly by focusing on preservation of capital and minimizing exposure to sectors with low visibility. Our process remains grounded in real-time consumer behavior signals, but we’re constantly accounting for exogenous drivers like trade policy and rates and macro uncertainty.
Key Takeaways from March
▹ Risk Recognition: We leaned cautious early in the month, reducing exposure to names with higher macro-sensitivity.
▹ Macro Over Alt-Data: Tariff headlines drove short-term sentiment more than real-time consumer activity, a shift we anticipated late February.
▹ Strategic Adaptation: We adjusted quickly by reducing trade frequency and focusing only on the clearest, highest conviction alt-data setups while hedging market exposure.
Despite the more challenging macro environment, we aim to continue to remain focused on our strengths through our Social Arbitrage strategy — with the sole goal of magnifying the upside in a market bounce while being protected against downside scenarios.
TickerTrends' February 2025 Performance Update
February brought its challenges, but we navigated it well given the market's volatility. The Social Arbitrage Fund posted a return of -3.06%, compared to the S&P 500’s -1.42% and the Nasdaq 100’s -2.76%. Given the sharp intramonth swings, we’re pleased with how we managed risk and positioned the portfolio for the months ahead.
Our underperformance this month was primarily driven by several unfavorable earnings positions, where some of our data did not correlate with business performance as expected. While we saw strong signals in certain alternative datasets, the actual earnings results deviated from our projections in a few key names due to external factors.
Despite this, we remain highly encouraged by the fund’s ability to navigate extreme intra-month volatility, especially as many retail trader favorite and technology names were severely punished. Our Social Arbitrage strategy continues to focus on preserving capital in market drawdowns while maintaining strategic exposure to high-conviction trades. Including this one month drawdown, our YTD still stands at +5.65%. After extensive research and review, we have already adjusted our positioning to reflect new insights and evolving market conditions. We are excited to demonstrate our strong performance in the coming months.
Key Takeaways from February
Earnings Volatility: While some earnings plays worked, a handful of positions did not align with expectations based on our alternative data.
Market Adaptation: We actively adjusted exposure throughout the month, responding to shifting market conditions.
Forward Positioning: Our latest positioning reflects deeper analysis of data correlation vs. fundamental business performance to refine our future strategy.
TickerTrends' January 2025 Performance Update
We kicked off the new year with another strong month! For January, the Social Arbitrage Fund posted an exceptional return of +8.98%, far outpacing the S&P 500’s +2.70% and the Nasdaq 100’s +1.64%.
Since inception in March, we have now achieved an impressive +47.32% live return, far surpassing the S&P 500’s +14.98%. More importantly, our strategy continues to shine in volatile markets, minimizing drawdowns while capitalizing on emerging trends.
Our Social Arbitrage strategy, powered by alternative data, remains a unique edge in identifying high-conviction market moves.
Key Drivers of January Performance
High-Conviction Earnings Positions: We leveraged our data-driven insights to position ahead of key earnings reports, identifying significant winners before they moved.
Holiday Season Idea Discovery: Our proprietary data platform flagged surging consumer demand trends that translated into strong equity moves post-holiday season.
Strategic Market Volatility Hedges: We navigated a choppy index environment with well-timed hedges, preserving gains while maintaining flexibility for market shifts.
TickerTrends' December 2024 Performance Update
December capped off an incredible year for the Social Arbitrage Fund! For the month, we delivered a strong return of +5.39%, significantly outperforming the S&P 500, which posted a decline of -2.50%, and the Nasdaq 100, which was flat at +0.39%.
Since our fund inception in March, we’ve achieved an outstanding +35.18% live return, surpassing the S&P 500's +11.96% by a wide margin — all with much lower volatility and strong performance on big down days for the S&P, as showcased on our Twitter.
Our results continue to prove that Social Arbitrage is a winning strategy, leveraging long tail alternative data to identify and act on market trends effectively. Data and social movements that are overlooked by slow moving quant funds.
Key Drivers of December Performance
Exploding Trends Outlier Mode: This proprietary tool surfaced timely, high-conviction ideas that drove gains in emerging themes.
Market Volatility Hedges: Strategic hedges shielded our portfolio from downside risks, ensuring steady performance even in turbulent markets.
Core Holdings Discipline: We maintained focus on our strongest positions, reassessing and adjusting as market conditions evolved.
TickerTrends' November 2024 Performance Update
We are proud to announce that in November, the Social Arbitrage Fund delivered an impressive return of +10.04%, far outperforming the broader indices. For comparison, the S&P 500 gained +5.73% and the Nasdaq 100 rose by +5.23%. This puts us at YTD returns of +86.60%.
This month’s performance underscores the strength of our proactive strategy, preparing for either outcome of the U.S. elections while staying focused on our strength - Social Arbitrage. By simultaneously protecting the downside with hedges and concentrating on multiple high-conviction positions, we leveraged our unique informational edge to navigate market complexities effectively.
Key Factors Driving Our Performance
Election Preparedness: Our strategy accounted for both potential outcomes of the U.S. elections, enabling us to manage risks while seizing opportunities in a volatile environment. Granular research also informed trades we would have made in either scenario to most benefit from the outcome.
Focused High-Conviction Investments: Concentrating on our strongest theses allowed us to maximize returns in areas that, in our view, were not yet saturated in social and market narratives.
Utilizing Our Enterprise Dashboard: We have recently publicly unveiled our Enterprise Data Terminal and have internally been conducting research far more quickly and effectively by using the improved feature set. We strongly recommend institutions who want access to this data reach out here.
Looking Forward
As we move into the final month of the year, we remain dedicated to leveraging alternative data and identifying actionable opportunities. Our goal is to deliver superior, risk-adjusted returns by staying ahead of trends and maintaining discipline in our investment approach. Moving to the end of the year, we are more confident than ever in our approach and its untapped potential in markets and are excited to continue to deliver exceptional returns.
TickerTrends' October 2024 Performance Update
In October, we achieved a strong return of +3.35% in the Social Arbitrage Fund, significantly outperforming the broader indices, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 posting losses of -0.99% and -0.85%, respectively.
This month’s performance highlights the strength of our dynamic approach - leveraging our unique informational edge derived from Social Arbitrage while minimizing exposure to external risks that may cause market volatility like the upcoming U.S. elections. Our continued focus on tactical positioning and uncorrelated returns allowed us to capture market opportunities while actively managing risks in a down month for the broader indexes.
Key Factors Driving Our Performance
Tactical Positioning Around Key Events: We strategically adjusted exposure around economic data releases and company earnings, capturing favorable market movements and effectively managing risk.
Proprietary Trend Discovery: Leveraging our own data platform, we uncovered new emerging consumer trends, allowing us to position ahead of the curve in promising opportunities.
High-Conviction, Research-Driven Positions: We concentrated on our best ideas, backed by extensive research, maximizing returns on high-conviction investments while minimizing unnecessary exposure.
Looking Forward
We remain focused on leveraging alternative data and social trends to identify actionable opportunities. Our aim is to consistently deliver superior, risk-adjusted returns while adapting to evolving market dynamics.
Thank you for your continued trust in our strategy.
TickerTrends' September 2024 Performance Update
In September, we posted a +1.24% gain in the Social Arbitrage Fund, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 posted gains of +2.02% and +2.48% respectively. While we trailed the broader indices this month, we remain focused on delivering uncorrelated returns, emphasizing our ability to minimize downside in volatile markets.
During the first week of September, when the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 declined by -4.25% and -5.89% respectively, we successfully limited our losses to just -1.29% in the same week. This demonstrates the effectiveness of our strategy, which prioritizes risk management and downside protection while maintaining a core focus on long term social-driven consumer trends.
Key Factors Driving Our Performance
Hedging Strategies: Our hedging mechanisms played a pivotal role in mitigating market volatility and minimizing drawdowns during a turbulent start to the month.
Uncorrelated Focus: Despite broader market fluctuations, our uncorrelated approach allowed us to focus on specific stock ideas, resulting in solid performance.
Research-Driven Positions: We continue to identify high-conviction positions rooted in deep research. Our insights, derived from Social Arbitrage research, help us capture growth in sectors with rising consumer interest. We expect these positions to materialize in the month of October as we have strategically built and identified strong market opportunities.
Looking Forward
We are confident that our data-driven approach, leveraging alternative data and consumer social trends, will continue to yield results in the months to come. Our focus remains on finding and benefiting from emerging trends, while prudently managing risk to deliver long-term, sustainable outperformance. We are very optimistic about the end of the year and are excited to continue to present significant results in the coming months.
Thank you for your continued trust in our strategy.
TickerTrends' August 2024 Performance Update
In August, we recorded a +3.65% gain in the Social Arbitrage Fund, outperforming both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indices, which reported a +2.30% gain and +1.10% gain respectively. This sets us at YTD returns of +61.53%.
Overall, we are highly satisfied with our strategy and performance this month. Market volatility, fueled by the breakdown of the Yen and growing recession fears, underscored the importance of maintaining a prudent investment approach. Our use of hedges to limit exposure to external risks proved invaluable in navigating these challenges.
For instance, during the peak of the Yen carry trade unwind from Thursday, August 1st close to Monday, August 5th close, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 dropped by (4.78%) and (5.27%), respectively. In contrast, the Social Arbitrage Fund's strategy limited losses to just (1.38%), showcasing the resilience of our hedging approach in a challenging market. Our focus remains on delivering uncorrelated returns driven by the alpha of our carefully selected positions, identified through advanced Social Arbitrage research and technology. We are more confident than ever in our positioning and investment thesis and will continue to diligently apply our data-driven Social Arbitrage methodology, which remains our core principle.
Social Arbitrage Fund Inquiries
Key Factors Driving Our Performance
Hedging Strategies: Our strong performance this month was bolstered by the effective use of market hedges, which helped minimize volatility beyond the scope of our core strategy.
Concentrated Positions: We identified high-conviction positions supported by rigorous research and enhanced tools. By strategically building these positions, our market insights were validated, leading to exceptional returns.
Diversification: We strategically diversified our portfolio across multiple sectors, ensuring that no single position dominated our performance. This balanced approach enabled us to navigate market volatility effectively while seizing a wider array of profitable opportunities.
Looking Forward
In the past month, TickerTrends' Social Arbitrage Fund has continued delivering its focus on uncorrelated returns, while also capturing uncapped upside. Through technology improvements, research and business expansion in the past two months, we are more excited than ever to continue to display the ability of our strategy to consistently outperform the market.
Through consistent validation not only in returns, but also in demand for our data business, we are exceedingly well positioned for a strong end to Q3 and Q4. We believe these accumulated advantages will continue delivering exceptional results for our clients.
Thank you for your continued support.
TickerTrends' July 2024 Performance Update
In July, we recorded a (3.87)% loss in the Social Arbitrage Fund, slightly underperforming both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indices, which reported a +1.13% gain and -1.63% loss respectively. This sets us at YTD returns of +55.85%.
This month, markets were relatively volatile, driven by lower than expected inflation readings and recession fears. We maintained positive net exposure, generally in the range of +0 to +20% throughout the month to continue to employ a prudent investment strategy while being disciplined about keeping hedges in place. This led to our manageable slight loss for the month, coming not from market correlation, but rather strategic positions. We are confident in our proactive positioning and adapting to market conditions when they change, always being prepared to handle market uncertainty if it arises. Our commitment remains unwavering to our investment thesis and strategy, which guides us in managing both existing and new positions with a long-term perspective. Our data-driven approach to analyzing alternative data remains our guiding principle.
Key Factors Driving Our Performance
Prudent Hedging Strategies: Our month was defined and greatly aided by continued focus on minimizing volatility outside the scope of our core alternative data investing strategy by identifying sectors of economic weakness within our data.
Adapting to New Conditions: This month, our performance was affected by a few positions despite our comprehensive research across the broad set of companies we monitor. In response, we conducted a thorough post-position analysis to pinpoint areas for future strategic development. We are highly optimistic about the adjustments we are making in gauging market expectations and confident in their potential to positively influence our future performance.
Looking Forward
Over the past month, TickerTrends' Social Arbitrage Fund has upheld its commitment to delivering uncorrelated returns, successfully managing downside risk within a controlled range. Our ongoing post-position analysis ensures we stay aligned with our long-term objectives, enabling us to recalibrate positions as market signals evolve.
As we move forward, we are placing even greater emphasis on leveraging our proprietary calculated values to fine-tune our strategies and optimize fund performance, regardless of market conditions. The integration of advanced technology and data analytics remains the backbone of our operations, driving the fund's resilience and adaptability.
We are enthusiastic about the potential of our enhanced strategies and are steadfast in our commitment to delivering outstanding results for our clients. Your continued trust and support are greatly appreciated as we navigate the ever-changing market landscape together.
Thank you for your continued support.
Warm regards,
Adrien Navarre
Founder and CEO, TickerTrends
TickerTrends' June 2024 Performance Update
In June, we experienced a neutral (1.40)% loss, underperforming both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indices, which reported gains of 3.47% and 6.18% respectively. This sets us at YTD returns of +60.55% maintaining our stretch of uncorrelated returns with a focus on achieving high upside while minimizing downside
As this month comes to a close, I wanted to take a moment to reflect on our trading performance and share my thoughts. First and foremost, I want to express my optimism in the evolution of our strategy and the potential that it holds. With a rapidly shifting economic and political environment, we see a high potential to express market views using our expanding corpus of technology. Our team’s dedication and hard work are evident.
Throughout this month, we have been able to continue a strong execution of our core Social Arbitrage methodology, while realizing additional points of growth for our analysis. This comes in the form of additional work to ensure that we can position ourselves most effectively to take advantage of information and data we are certain of. Due to our unique team, we are able to execute high quality research and implementation at an exceedingly high velocity.
Key Factors Impacting this Month's Performance
Positioning: We encountered a few instances where our positioning did not express the focused view of what we wanted in the market. This is a constant area of growth and research.
Focus on Uncorrelated Returns: Due to our focus on uncorrelated returns from the market, we will naturally have more hedged exposure than a simple long book. This strategy serves us well during times of uncertainty but sometimes can negatively skew any individual month.
Looking Forward
In the past month, TickerTrends has fortified its reputation for managing downside volatility while maintaining previous outperformance, despite June returns being below expectations. This performance reflects our strategy of aiming for uncorrelated returns and focusing on long-term outperformance, driven by our seamless integration of advanced technology and data analytics. As we progress, we are increasingly leveraging proprietary technologies to refine our strategies and enhance fund performance, irrespective of market conditions. This evolution marks a significant milestone, showcasing our capability to adapt and excel. We are excited about the potential of our enhanced strategies and remain dedicated to delivering exceptional results for our clients.
Thank you for your continued support.
Warm regards,
Adrien Navarre
Founder and CEO, TickerTrends
TickerTrends' May 2024 Performance Update
In May, we achieved a positive 11.05% gain, significantly outperforming both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indices, which reported gains of 4.80% and 6.28% respectively. This sets us at YTD returns of +62.57%.
Overall, we are very pleased with our performance. This month, markets reacted positively to lack of further geopolitical escalation and more tame inflation readings, reflected in the solid month of index performance. We maintained positive net exposure, generally in the range of +10 to +20% throughout the month to continue to employ a prudent investment strategy. We achieved strong execution of our earnings strategies while balancing a well diversified portfolio of holdings.
Key Factors Driving Our Outperformance
Focusing on Strengths: Our proprietary internal technology and data once again allowed us to identify opportunities the market hadn't fully appreciated.
Earnings Season Winners: We successfully executed our earnings playbook. Our earnings strategy has continued to evolve and we are very confident in our ability to profitably position ourselves around reports.
Prudent Hedging Strategies: Our success is significantly attributed to our continued focus on minimizing volatility outside the scope of our core alternative data investing strategy by identifying sectors of economic weakness within our data.
Looking Forward
In the past month, TickerTrends has not only upheld but also fortified its reputation for simultaneously managing downside volatility while capturing substantial upside outperformance. Our returns in May are a testament to our strategic evolution and our commitment to sophisticated asset allocation. This prowess stems from our seamless integration of advanced technology and data analytics, which continue to be the cornerstone of our operations.
Thank you for your continued support.
Warm regards,
Adrien Navarre
Founder and CEO, TickerTrends
TickerTrends' April 2024 Performance Update
In April, we achieved a positive 1.28% gain, outperforming both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indices, which reported declines of -4.16% and -4.46% respectively. This sets us at YTD returns of +46.39%.
Given the month's geopolitical uncertainty, we are very pleased with our performance and are confident in our proactive positioning. We were able to quantify a period of market uncertainty and adapted by keeping net exposure low, generally in the 0 to +10% range. However, our gross exposure was high and even increased throughout the month. Our commitment remains unwavering to our investment thesis and strategy, which guides us in managing both existing and new positions with a long-term perspective. Our data-driven approach to analyzing alternative data remains our guiding principle.
Join Us for Our First In-Person Event!
We are pleased to announce TickerTrends' first in-person event in Dallas, TX. If you're interested in attending please see the details on Eventbrite:
TickerTrends Dallas Manager & Allocator Event
Key Factors Driving Our Outperformance
Hedging Strategies: Our success is significantly attributed to our attentiveness and effectiveness of our hedging strategy which includes identifying sectors of economic weakness within our data.
Recognizing Geopolitical Risk: We recognized geopolitical risk early on and remained disciplined with our long/short strategy. Additionally, when risk arose, we reduced our net exposure ensuring our portfolio would be able to sustain a market correction.
Market Positioning: Our market positioning strategy is dynamic, adjusting to market conditions. We base our positions on the reliability of internal signals, allowing us to capitalize on profitable opportunities across various sectors and themes. This approach ensures our portfolio remains diversified and resilient against macroeconomic uncertainties.
Looking Forward
In the past month, TickerTrends has not only upheld but also fortified its reputation for managing downside volatility while capturing substantial upside and outperformance. Our returns in April are a testament to our strategic evolution and our commitment to sophisticated asset allocation. This prowess stems from our seamless integration of advanced technology and data analytics, which continue to be the cornerstone of our operations.
As we progress, we are increasingly leveraging our proprietary technologies to refine our strategies and enhance fund performance, irrespective of market conditions. This evolution marks a significant milestone in our journey, showcasing our capability to adapt and excel. We are excited about the potential of our enhanced strategies and remain dedicated to delivering exceptional results for our clients.
Thank you for your continued support.
Warm regards,
Adrien Navarre
Founder and CEO, TickerTrends