What's Trending with TickerTrends #11
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TickerTrend’s Monday Monitor is our overview of interesting social arbitrage event-driven trades and companies that could potentially benefit from these. We aim to find the best ideas driven by social arb. If you have any interesting ideas, feel free to contact us on X or join our Discord.
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Earnings Recap:
You can get the transcripts for all earnings calls here: https://www.tickertrends.io/transcripts. This week the most prominent companies to report were the following and these are the highlights from the calls:
1. RH ($RH):
RH reported strong third-quarter fiscal 2024 results, demonstrating resilience and growth despite operating in what CEO Gary Friedman described as the "worst housing market in 30 years." Check out our trend highlight on $RH here: https://blog.tickertrends.io/p/rh-restoration-hardware-trend-highlight?r=4ioql1&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=false.Demand increased by 13% year-over-year in Q3, with further acceleration in November to 18% and early December demand up 30% year-over-year. This growth was largely driven by the ongoing product transformation, which has introduced a disruptive level of design, quality, and value to the luxury home market. The RH Modern Sourcebook, featuring 54 new collections, has played a pivotal role in capturing market share, with gains of 15-25 points in Q3 and expected gains of 25-45 points in Q4. Upcoming product launches, including the RH Interiors Sourcebook and RH Outdoor Sourcebook in early 2025, are set to sustain this momentum.
Financially, RH reported an 8.1% revenue increase in Q3, with adjusted operating margin improving to 15%, up from 7.3% a year ago. The company raised its guidance for Q4, now expecting demand growth of 20-22% and revenue growth of 18-20%. Full-year guidance was also revised upward, with revenue growth projected at 6.8-7.2% and adjusted EBITDA margins of 17.2-17.4%. RH anticipates becoming free cash flow positive in 2025, as most of its major investments—including its European expansion and product inventory buildup—are now complete. The company emphasized its strategic decision to invest heavily during downturns, positioning itself to capture significant market share as the housing market recovers.
The transformation of RH’s product offerings is supported by its platform expansion strategy. The company opened its 90,000-square-foot RH Newport Beach gallery, featuring retail and hospitality spaces, including the first Waterworks showroom. The brand plans to open seven new North American galleries in 2025, along with its first major European locations in Paris and London. RH England, opened in 2022, has delivered strong results, with second-year demand up 42% in-store and 111% online. The performance of RH England has provided a benchmark for the brand’s European expansion, with Paris and London expected to deliver significantly higher returns due to their urban locations and affluent customer bases.
Waterworks, a high-end kitchen and bath brand acquired by RH in 2016, is being integrated into RH’s platform and positioned for significant growth. The company expects Waterworks to evolve from its current $200 million in revenue to a billion-dollar brand. Similarly, RH Couture Upholstery by Dmitriy & Co is set to launch in 2025, offering exclusive, trade-focused designs directly to consumers. These initiatives highlight RH's ability to scale luxury-focused businesses while maintaining their exclusivity.
During the earnings call, Friedman expressed optimism about the company’s long-term trajectory, characterizing RH as being in the early stages of a “product development supercycle.” He noted that the company’s vision has shifted from being a specialty brand to a “platform for taste,” allowing RH to address a much larger market. The CEO also highlighted the strategic advantage of RH’s physical galleries, which provide immersive experiences that cannot be replicated online, differentiating the brand in a competitive market.
Friedman also discussed RH’s exit from sourcing in China by mid-2025 and the company’s proactive steps to shift production to other regions, including Mexico. While this transition has required upfront investments, RH expects to mitigate potential tariff impacts and improve supply chain resilience. Additionally, the company is navigating some inefficiencies related to inventory and clearance stock but remains focused on scaling its product offerings and optimizing its supply chain.
Looking ahead, RH plans to launch a significant new brand extension in 2025, which Friedman described as potentially as impactful as the core RH transformation. This extension will target the largest segment of the market, further broadening RH’s reach and growth potential. With strong demand trends, a completed investment cycle, and a housing market recovery on the horizon, RH is positioned for sustained growth, margin expansion, and increased cash flow in the coming years. The company’s approach of investing during downturns, building an unmatched platform, and scaling market share highlights its confidence in achieving long-term market leadership in the luxury home category.
2. Costco Wholesale Corporation ($COST):
Costco Wholesale Corporation reported strong Q1 FY2025 results, with net sales increasing 7.5% to $60.99 billion and net income rising 9.9% (excluding tax benefits). Comparable sales, adjusted for gas deflation and foreign exchange (FX), grew by 7.1%, with U.S. sales up 7.2%, Canada up 6.7%, and other international markets up 7.1%. E-commerce sales showed strong momentum, rising 13.2%. Membership fee income grew by 7.8%, with total paid household memberships increasing by 7.6% year over year. Executive Memberships grew by 9.2% and now represent 46.8% of paid members and 73.1% of worldwide sales.
Operational highlights included opening seven new warehouses, with 29 total planned for FY2025. Costco Logistics achieved nearly one million deliveries in the quarter, with most completed within four days. Record sales were noted in various segments, such as the U.S. bakery (4.2 million pies sold before Thanksgiving), food courts (record pizza sales on Halloween), and pharmacy (19% prescription growth). Strong nonfood sales growth was observed in categories like gold jewelry, gift cards, sporting goods, and home furnishings, while food and sundries also saw robust performance, particularly in fresh and frozen items.
Kirkland Signature continued to outpace overall company growth, with innovative new products introduced. The company’s e-commerce initiatives, including app enhancements and Costco Next, contributed to digital sales growth. Costco also completed its first targeted retail media campaign, achieving high returns on ad spend and signaling a future growth opportunity.
The gross margin rate increased slightly, driven by a mix of improved e-commerce margins and favorable credit card co-brand program results, partially offset by gas deflation. Inflation remained flat overall, with slight increases in food and sundries offset by deflation in nonfood categories. Supply chain conditions remained stable, with inventory well-positioned for the holidays despite challenges like avian influenza and port strikes.
Looking ahead, Costco reaffirmed plans for steady international expansion, with a focus on relieving pressure from high-volume locations and enhancing member experience. Digital growth remains a priority, supported by improvements in logistics and app functionality. Management highlighted the company’s strong competitive position, continued price investments, and commitment to delivering exceptional value to its members.
Trends this week:
1. Bandai Namco Holdings Inc (7832.T):
Elden Ring Nightreign, FromSoftware’s newly announced standalone spin-off, has fans and investors buzzing with excitement. Set to release in 2025, this co-op survival game departs from the traditional Soulslike formula by introducing a multiplayer-focused, roguelike structure. Players team up in squads of three (or go solo) to tackle a dynamic three-day and night cycle in an ever-changing world. The announcement led to Bandai Namco's stock rising 7%, underscoring the market's confidence in the game's potential.
Fans are particularly intrigued by several innovative features. The gameplay emphasizes fast-paced action, teamwork, and character-driven mechanics, blending elements from hit genres like roguelikes and survival games. The inclusion of eight unique heroes, each with distinct abilities and powerful "Ultimates," gives Nightreign an approachable, strategic depth. The game also introduces randomized maps, dynamic boss fights, and a shrinking playable area (akin to battle royales), ensuring no two runs feel the same. Boss battles escalate in difficulty, culminating in climactic showdowns against “Nightlords,” which unravel the lore of the characters and the world.
FromSoftware’s decision to set the game in a parallel universe to Elden Ring offers creative freedom while maintaining ties to the beloved original. Iconic elements from past games, such as the Dark Souls bosses, make cameo appearances, sparking curiosity about the lore connections. Players also praised the accessibility improvements, such as streamlined character leveling, absence of fall damage, and co-op-friendly mechanics like ranged revives. Despite its multiplayer focus, Nightreign remains accessible for solo players, with scalable difficulty and permanent character upgrades.
The game's appeal lies in its potential to draw both existing FromSoftware fans and new players. With its shorter, action-packed play sessions and replayable structure, it provides an alternative to traditional lengthy RPG campaigns. Moreover, the decision to avoid live-service elements like battle passes or microtransactions has reassured fans that the game will offer a complete experience at launch.
For Bandai Namco, Nightreign could be a transformative release. The success of Elden Ring in 2022 made it one of the company’s biggest franchises, and this new game aims to expand its audience while building on the original’s legacy. The buzz from the announcement and pre-launch network tests scheduled for early 2025 highlights the anticipation surrounding the title. The game’s unique blend of co-op action, strategy, and lore-rich storytelling positions it as a potential Game of the Year contender and a major revenue driver for Bandai Namco.
In summary, Elden Ring Nightreign is poised to be a groundbreaking entry in FromSoftware’s portfolio, with the potential to captivate players worldwide and further solidify Bandai Namco’s dominance in the gaming industry. Its mix of innovation, familiarity, and accessibility could redefine the expectations for multiplayer RPGs.
2. Kadokawa Corporation (9468.T):
This week Sony confirmed interest in acquiring Kadokawa Corporation, the parent company of FromSoftware, marking a pivotal moment for Japan’s entertainment landscape. If successful, the acquisition would grant Sony access to Kadokawa’s vast portfolio, including renowned anime and manga IPs like Re:Zero, Sword Art Online, and Oshi no Ko, as well as the globally acclaimed gaming studio FromSoftware, developers of Elden Ring, Dark Souls, and Bloodborne. The move would not only bolster Sony’s gaming division but also consolidate its dominance in the anime industry, building on its existing assets such as Aniplex and Crunchyroll. This strategic alignment would enable cross-media collaborations and expand Sony’s multimedia storytelling capabilities across gaming, streaming, and film.
For Kadokawa, the deal presents an opportunity to revitalize its operations. Employees have expressed optimism, citing frustrations with current leadership, especially in light of Kadokawa’s mishandling of a recent ransomware attack. Under Sony, FromSoftware could benefit from increased resources and alignment with PlayStation’s ecosystem, while Kadokawa’s anime and media assets would gain global reach. However, the acquisition may also limit Kadokawa’s autonomy, with a stronger focus on profitability and IP creation.
The potential price of the deal is significant, as Kadokawa is seeking an all-inclusive acquisition encompassing its gaming and non-gaming assets. FromSoftware alone is valued at over $1 billion due to its global success, while Kadokawa’s overall value is estimated between $3 billion and $4 billion. This range reflects a likely 30%-40% premium over its current market capitalization, a standard in strategic acquisitions. Sony already owns a 2% stake in Kadokawa and 14.09% in FromSoftware, with Tencent holding an additional 16.25%. A successful bid would bring Sony’s stake to over 83% in FromSoftware, solidifying its control and influence over the studio.
If finalized, this acquisition would not only reshape Japan’s entertainment sector but also strengthen Sony’s competitive edge against Microsoft and Nintendo. It would integrate Kadokawa’s diverse assets into Sony’s ecosystem, creating new opportunities for cross-platform storytelling while reinforcing Sony’s position as a leader in gaming, anime, and media on a global scale.
3. CD Projekt Red (WSE: C 0.00%↑ DR):
CD Projekt Red has officially unveiled The Witcher 4, marking a bold new chapter in the iconic RPG series. Revealed at The Game Awards 2024 with a cinematic trailer, the game introduces Ciri as the main protagonist, transitioning the franchise from Geralt’s storied adventures to a fresh, player-defined journey. The announcement also confirmed that this will be the first installment in a new trilogy, following the events of The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt and promising to expand the rich narrative and immersive gameplay that fans have come to expect.
CD Projekt’s team, including executive producer Małgorzata Mitręga and game director Sebastian Kalemba, emphasized that the decision to spotlight Ciri had been in the making for nearly a decade. With her layered character, unique abilities, and untapped potential, the developers view her as a natural choice for a protagonist capable of carrying the series forward. This change signals a fresh direction while honoring the Witcher series' core themes, offering a balance between legacy and innovation.
The reveal of The Witcher 4 has sparked widespread excitement among fans, who are eager to see how Ciri’s story unfolds. The trailer showcased Ciri as a fully-fledged Witcher, hinting at her growth following the events of The Witcher 3. Players will have the opportunity to shape her journey, exploring her individuality and forming her own Witcher code. This shift offers a more personalized experience, with the promise of deeper player agency and enhanced gameplay inspired by lessons learned from Cyberpunk 2077 and its Phantom Liberty expansion.
Fans have praised CD Projekt Red’s ability to expand upon Andrzej Sapkowski’s world while maintaining the spirit and complexity of the original novels. The game’s developers have also committed to incorporating more varied character builds and gameplay mechanics, drawing inspiration from their work on Cyberpunk 2077, to create a more dynamic and customizable RPG experience. The excitement is amplified by the promise of a continuation of the franchise’s rich storytelling, memorable characters, and morally complex choices.
Despite the excitement, The Witcher 4 carries the weight of high expectations and lingering skepticism from investors and players alike, stemming from the botched launch of Cyberpunk 2077 in 2020. That release, plagued by technical issues and incomplete features, resulted in significant reputational damage for CD Projekt Red and a steep decline in its market valuation. While the studio managed to redeem itself through extensive updates and the critically acclaimed Phantom Liberty expansion, many investors remain cautious about the company’s ability to execute a smooth launch for such a high-profile title.
To address these concerns, CD Projekt Red has overhauled its development processes, adopting a "let it cook" approach to ensure thorough testing and quality assurance. The company has emphasized its commitment to scoping projects mindfully and maintaining healthier working conditions for its teams. These changes aim to avoid the crunch culture and rushed production cycles that marred Cyberpunk 2077.
For CD Projekt Red, the stakes are immense. A successful launch for The Witcher 4 would not only cement the company’s reputation as a leading RPG developer but also restore full investor confidence. The new trilogy has the potential to drive significant revenue for years to come, ensuring sustained growth through expansions and merchandise. Additionally, the game’s success could bolster CD Projekt’s ability to pursue new creative ventures and further solidify the Witcher franchise as one of the most beloved in gaming history.
However, failure to deliver a polished experience at launch could reopen old wounds and reignite doubts about the company’s management and production pipeline. With The Witcher 4 being a cornerstone of CD Projekt’s future plans, all eyes are on the studio as it works to balance fan expectations, investor confidence, and its ambitious creative vision.
4. Google Inc. ($GOOGL):
Google has unveiled its groundbreaking quantum computing chip, Willow, marking a significant leap in the development of quantum technology. The chip, capable of solving computational problems in under five minutes that would take classical supercomputers over 10 septillion years, represents a monumental achievement. While practical quantum computing applications remain years away, Willow has reignited interest in Google's technological capabilities and its potential to drive transformative change across industries.
Willow showcases Google's commitment to innovation beyond its core search business, an area that some investors have feared is stagnating due to increasing competition from AI-powered alternatives. The chip, with its 105 qubits—nearly double the capacity of Google's previous Sycamore chip—addresses one of quantum computing’s most persistent challenges: reducing error rates while scaling up qubit numbers. This technological milestone positions Google as a leader in the quantum race, alongside companies like IBM and Microsoft, highlighting its potential to revolutionize sectors such as healthcare, cybersecurity, and energy.
According to Google Quantum AI director Hartmut Neven, Willow could pave the way for practical quantum computing solutions, unlocking new possibilities in drug discovery, battery development, and clean energy alternatives. This aligns with Google's broader mission of tackling humanity's most complex challenges through cutting-edge technology.
The announcement of Willow comes at a time when Google’s parent company, Alphabet, faces scrutiny over its reliance on the advertising-driven search business. As competitors like OpenAI and Microsoft threaten to erode Google’s dominance, the company has faced questions about its long-term growth prospects. The perception that Google is “dead money” among the Magnificent Seven tech giants (Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, Nvidia, Tesla, and Alphabet) has led to a valuation gap, with Alphabet trading at a discount relative to its peers.
Willow and the broader quantum initiative serve as a reminder of the hidden potential within Google’s extensive R&D efforts. While quantum computing is still years away from commercial viability, Willow’s breakthrough underscores Google’s ability to innovate in transformative fields, offering a potential catalyst for renewed investor confidence.
If quantum computing progresses as expected, Google could unlock multi-billion-dollar markets, enhancing its long-term growth prospects. Furthermore, the company’s efforts in quantum computing could serve as a hedge against threats to its core businesses by opening entirely new revenue streams. This narrative could help close the valuation gap with other tech giants as investors recognize Google’s strategic positioning in emerging technologies.
Despite the excitement around Willow, quantum computing’s practical applications remain far off. Google has acknowledged that breaking modern encryption, one of the field's most discussed potential uses, would require millions of qubits—far beyond Willow’s current 105. This timeline aligns with estimates that a cryptanalytically relevant quantum computer (CRQC) is at least a decade away.
However, the technological foundation laid by Willow signals that Google is making meaningful progress. It also reflects a broader shift within Alphabet, showcasing its ability to innovate in ways that extend beyond the confines of its traditional business lines.
While Willow’s immediate financial impact is limited, its long-term potential could reshape Google’s narrative among investors. As the company continues to develop quantum technology and explore commercial applications, the perception of Google as merely an advertising giant may give way to recognition of its role as a leader in next-generation computing. This shift in perception could act as a catalyst for Alphabet’s stock, potentially narrowing the valuation gap with its peers and positioning the company for sustained growth in a rapidly evolving tech landscape.
With Willow, Google has delivered not only a technological milestone but also a reminder of the hidden innovation within its walls—a compelling story for investors looking for long-term catalysts in the tech sector.
5. Bitcoin ($IBIT):
Quantum computing, once a theoretical concept, is now moving towards practical reality, with groundbreaking developments such as Google’s latest quantum chip, Willow. Capable of solving problems in minutes that would take classical supercomputers longer than the age of the universe to complete, Willow has reignited discussions about the transformative potential of quantum computing. From reshaping industries to presenting both opportunities and threats, this technology is set to have a profound impact, particularly on cryptocurrencies and the companies that rely on cryptographic systems.
The security of cryptocurrencies is rooted in cryptographic algorithms like RSA, the Elliptic Curve Digital Signature Algorithm (ECDSA), and SHA-256. These algorithms depend on the immense computational difficulty of solving specific mathematical problems, making them resilient against classical computing attacks. However, quantum computing’s unique capabilities—such as leveraging quantum superposition and entanglement—enable it to solve these problems exponentially faster. This poses a potential existential threat to the foundational security of cryptocurrencies.
One of the most significant risks quantum computing presents is the vulnerability of private keys. Quantum algorithms, such as Shor’s, could theoretically decrypt private keys from their corresponding public keys, allowing attackers to access and control wallets. This threat extends to the billions of dollars currently stored across blockchain networks. Furthermore, mining, the process of verifying and adding transactions to the blockchain, could also be disrupted. Quantum computers might solve mining puzzles faster than traditional miners, potentially centralizing power and undermining the decentralized nature of cryptocurrencies.
Despite these risks, the current state of quantum computing is far from ready to impact cryptocurrencies directly. Today’s quantum computers are still in their infancy, plagued by operational challenges such as susceptibility to environmental interference and high error rates. Even Willow, Google’s most advanced chip to date, operates with just 105 qubits—far short of the millions of qubits required to crack modern encryption standards like SHA-256.
The looming quantum threat has spurred the cryptocurrency industry to explore quantum-resistant solutions. Developers are actively researching and testing new cryptographic algorithms, such as lattice-based or hash-based encryption, designed to withstand quantum attacks. Some blockchain projects are already incorporating quantum-resistant technologies, positioning themselves as potential leaders in the post-quantum era. Moreover, the decentralized nature of blockchain networks provides a mechanism for protocol upgrades through hard forks, ensuring adaptability in the face of evolving threats.
We quantum computing is still years away from posing an immediate threat to cryptocurrencies, its development underscores the need for innovation in cryptographic security. Companies like Google, leading the charge in quantum advancements, stand to benefit significantly as this technology transitions from a theoretical to a practical tool. For cryptocurrencies, the race to quantum resistance is not just a technological challenge but an existential one—one that will shape the future of digital finance and security.
6. Capcom Co., Ltd. (9697.T):
Capcom made a significant splash at The Game Awards 2024 with the announcement of Onimusha: Way of the Sword and a sequel to Okami. Both announcements signal a revival of two beloved franchises, reigniting fan enthusiasm and showcasing Capcom’s strategy to leverage its rich library of dormant intellectual properties. The response from fans has been overwhelmingly positive, with long-time supporters of these franchises expressing excitement for their return, which marks a strategic pivot for Capcom to balance nostalgia with modern gaming sensibilities.
Onimusha: Way of the Sword, set to release in 2026, is the first new entry in the Onimusha series in over two decades. Known for its blend of action and swordplay mechanics, the series returns with a dark fantasy twist, powered by Capcom’s highly acclaimed RE Engine. Fans who have long awaited a sequel have praised the cinematic trailer, which showcased intense third-person combat and a more expansive, modernized take on the series. The announcement positions Onimusha as a potential competitor to modern action RPGs like Elden Ring and Nioh, signaling Capcom’s ambition to reestablish the franchise as a major player in the genre.
The Okami sequel, also unveiled at the event, brought equal fanfare. The original Okami, a cult classic celebrated for its distinctive art style and storytelling, has maintained a loyal fanbase since its release in 2006. The sequel will feature the creative direction of Hideki Kamiya, who has returned to Capcom under his new studio, Clovers Inc. Fans have responded with nostalgia and hope that the sequel will capture the magic of the original while updating it for modern audiences. With the involvement of the original creator and a focus on maintaining the artistic essence of the franchise, expectations are high.
Strategically, these announcements align with Capcom’s stated goal of reviving dormant IPs to capitalize on their historical value and fan appeal. By reintroducing franchises like Onimusha and Okami, Capcom aims to diversify its portfolio, which has recently leaned heavily on the success of the Resident Evil and Monster Hunter series. The move could bolster Capcom’s market position, particularly as the gaming industry grows increasingly reliant on established franchises to drive sales and fan engagement.
For investors, the announcements highlight Capcom’s commitment to balancing nostalgia-driven projects with its ongoing efforts to innovate. The company’s focus on leveraging its extensive IP library, as stated in its recent investor communication, is a calculated strategy to drive efficient, high-quality game production while appealing to long-time fans. This approach could potentially enhance Capcom’s valuation and reduce reliance on a few major franchises, presenting a diversified growth narrative to stakeholders.
The return of Onimusha and Okami marks a pivotal moment for Capcom, both creatively and strategically. The enthusiastic response from fans demonstrates the enduring appeal of these franchises, while their revival underscores Capcom’s ability to adapt its legacy for a new generation of gamers. If executed well, these projects could solidify Capcom’s standing as a leader in the gaming industry and provide a boost to its stock, especially as the company continues to expand its reach and capitalize on its rich catalog of beloved titles.
7. Burger King ($QSR):
Social media was recently abuzz with claims that Burger King’s official account on X (formerly Twitter) posted “We Don’t Snitch” in response to the arrest of Luigi Mangione, the suspect accused of killing UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson. The viral post appeared to poke fun at McDonald’s, where Mangione was arrested after being identified by an employee. However, this claim has been thoroughly debunked and proven false.
The viral screenshot circulating online has been confirmed to be digitally altered. Fact-checking organizations, including Fact Crescendo and CheckYourFact, analyzed the alleged post and determined it to be fake. Official Burger King accounts on X and other platforms show no evidence of such a tweet. Moreover, the most recent posts from Burger King’s verified accounts predate Mangione’s arrest, indicating no reference to the incident.
The origin of the false post appears to be a viral meme generated using online tools designed to fabricate social media screenshots. Observers noted discrepancies in the font, date format, and layout of the alleged tweet, which do not align with the standard appearance of posts from Burger King’s official X account. Newsweek also verified that the post was fabricated using these tools.
The incident that sparked the viral hoax centers around Luigi Mangione’s arrest on December 9, 2024. Mangione, a 26-year-old Ivy League graduate, was apprehended at a McDonald’s in Altoona, Pennsylvania, after an employee recognized him from viral images circulating on social media. Mangione is accused of the high-profile murder of Brian Thompson, which had triggered a multi-state manhunt. Reports indicate he was found in possession of firearms, ammunition, cash, and fake identification.
The arrest quickly became a trending topic, with social media users sharing reactions and memes. The fabricated Burger King post gained traction after being shared by X user @MikeBeauvais, whose caption, “Luigi Mangione shouldn’t have gone to McDonald’s,” added to the humor. The post amassed millions of views and sparked debates online, with some praising the supposed jab and others questioning its authenticity.
Despite the post being fake, the incident highlights the viral nature of digital misinformation. Social media platforms like X have labeled the image as “Manipulated Media” to prevent further dissemination of the false claim. Meanwhile, Burger King has not officially commented on the hoax.
This case underscores the importance of verifying information before sharing, particularly in a landscape where fake content can easily go viral. While the story generated significant attention, the truth remains that Burger King did not post “We Don’t Snitch,” and the viral screenshot is a fabricated piece of digital humor.
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