What’s Trending with TickerTrends #31
TickerTrend’s Monday Monitor is our overview of interesting social arbitrage event-driven trades and companies that could potentially benefit from these. Join us on X or join our Discord.
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Earnings Recap:
Shopify Inc ($SHOP):
Shopify delivered another quarter of strong growth in Q1 2025, navigating global macroeconomic headwinds—including escalating trade tensions and tariff changes—with agility and operational discipline. The company reported a 27% year-over-year increase in revenue and a free cash flow margin of 15%, underscoring the strength of its commerce operating platform and its diversified, global merchant base.
Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) for the quarter reached $74.8 billion, marking a 23% year-over-year increase and continuing a streak of seven consecutive quarters with GMV growth above 20%. Management attributed the strong performance to both increased same-store sales and new merchant additions across key verticals, including apparel, health and beauty, and home goods. Europe remained a standout region with 36% GMV growth, led by gains in the U.K., Netherlands, and Germany. Cross-border GMV held steady at 15% of total GMV, while the offline segment posted a 23% increase, driven by adoption among mid-market and multi-location merchants.
In response to newly implemented tariffs and the expiration of the de minimis exemption for certain Chinese imports, Shopify rolled out several product updates, including the AI-driven TariffGuide.ai, duty-inclusive pricing at checkout, and enhanced cross-border shipping tools. According to President Harley Finkelstein, these initiatives were designed and deployed in a matter of days—part of a broader effort to help merchants remain compliant and competitive. “Shopify was built for times like this,” said Finkelstein. “Our merchants outperform the market because we obsess over building tools that make commerce easier, even in uncertain times.”
Shopify Payments also saw meaningful expansion, now live in 39 countries after 16 new launches in Q1. Payments penetration reached 64%, with Shop Pay processing over $22 billion in GMV. The company highlighted continued traction among large enterprises, noting expanded relationships with VF Corp, Follett Higher Education, and Tapestry brands, alongside new launches from brands like Away, JW Anderson, and Therabody.
Artificial intelligence remains central to Shopify’s product and internal operations strategy. The company emphasized its “reflexive AI usage” model, requiring teams to consider AI as the default before requesting new resources. Monthly active users of Sidekick, Shopify’s AI-powered merchant assistant, have more than doubled since the start of 2025, and internal AI tools are being scaled across all departments to increase productivity and reduce manual workflows.
On profitability, CFO Jeff Hoffmeister noted that gross margins declined slightly to 49.5%, impacted by continued growth in lower-margin payments and changes in non-cash partnership revenue. Merchant Solutions gross margin came in at 38.6%, compared to 40.1% a year earlier. Subscription Solutions gross margin remained stable at around 80%. Hoffmeister reiterated that Shopify is committed to maintaining balanced investment in growth and product development, particularly in international expansion, AI, and enterprise capabilities.
Looking ahead to Q2, Shopify expects revenue growth in the mid-20% range and a free cash flow margin similar to Q1. While macroeconomic conditions remain fluid, early Q2 trends through April and May support continued strength, according to management. “Shopify’s diversified merchant base and rapid response capabilities position it uniquely to help businesses adapt to a volatile global environment,” Hoffmeister said. “We’re not optimizing for near-term margins—we’re investing in long-term, durable growth.”
Hims & Hers Health Inc ($HIMS):
Hims & Hers (NYSE: HIMS) reported another record quarter as it continues its transformation into a vertically integrated, tech-enabled precision healthcare platform. For Q1 2025, revenue more than doubled year-over-year to $586 million, while adjusted EBITDA nearly tripled to $91 million, reflecting 16% margin. Subscriber growth remained robust, reaching nearly 2.4 million, with a significant portion—over 1.4 million—now using personalized daily treatment plans. The company also reiterated its full-year revenue guidance of $2.3 to $2.4 billion, raising adjusted EBITDA guidance to $295–$335 million.
A major development this quarter was the announcement of a collaboration with Novo Nordisk to offer branded Wegovy to Hims’ weight loss subscribers. This expands Hims' obesity care portfolio, which already includes liraglutide, oral GLP-1 alternatives, and personalized semaglutide solutions. Weight loss revenue is expected to hit $725 million in 2025. The company expects to fully transition customers off the temporary semaglutide shortage inventory by the end of Q2, with demand remaining strong across its diversified offerings. Leadership emphasized that a key differentiator remains consumer choice and access at varying price points, with oral alternatives particularly attractive given their affordability and efficacy.
The company also revealed its long-term ambition: $6.5 billion in annual revenue and $1.3 billion in adjusted EBITDA by 2030. CEO Andrew Dudum emphasized that this target is achievable by expanding across five key growth pillars: deepening personalization, broadening into new specialties, enhancing subscriber tools and services (especially via AI), building industry partnerships, and expanding internationally. He cited strong traction in core categories like dermatology and sexual health, which are being reshaped by daily, multi-condition treatment regimens and proprietary compounding. Daily sexual health offerings now make up 40% of the category and boast materially better retention.
Operationally, Hims is investing heavily in fulfillment, lab diagnostics, and peptide innovation. Capex hit $59 million in Q1, supporting initiatives like sterile compounding, automation, and a new Arizona facility that expands fulfillment capacity by over 70%. The company also announced the acquisition of a lab testing provider, enabling it to offer diagnostic bloodwork for biomarkers tied to cardiovascular, liver, thyroid, prostate, and hormone health. These capabilities will underpin upcoming launches in low testosterone and menopause support—two high-demand, hormone-related categories already being requested by Hims’ existing subscriber base.
Gross margins came in lower due to weight loss product mix, but management expects improvement in Q2 as fulfillment efficiencies scale and other categories regain revenue share. Marketing spend improved markedly as well, dropping to 39% of revenue from 47% a year ago, even with costly campaigns like the company’s Super Bowl ad. Subscriber acquisition is increasingly being driven by low-cost, organic channels, while retention is improving across personalized offerings. Management reaffirmed their commitment to remaining a direct-to-consumer cash-pay platform, citing inefficiencies in insurance-based healthcare and emphasizing that affordability and control are key competitive advantages. The collaboration with Novo was framed as a strategic blueprint for future partnerships with pharma, diagnostics, and biotech firms. Leadership reiterated that all clinical decisions—including prescribing personalized semaglutide—are made independently by providers under regulatory exemptions, underscoring Hims' compliance posture in a complex and evolving landscape.
With a growing platform, diversified specialties, rising subscriber value, and expanding partnerships, Hims & Hers is positioning itself not just as a consumer brand, but as a cornerstone in the future of affordable, personalized healthcare.
Trends this week:
Take-Two Interactive Software Inc ($TTWO):
Grand Theft Auto 6’s second trailer has sent shockwaves through the gaming industry, not just for the narrative teases and character reveals, but because it has reaffirmed Rockstar’s position as the gold standard for technical ambition in open-world game design. Dropping unexpectedly just days after the company confirmed a delay to May 2026, the trailer has already broken records, amassing over 475 million views in just 24 hours across platforms and almost 100 million views in just 4 days—becoming the fastest-growing video launch in history.
The realism in the trailer is jaw-dropping. Rockstar is deploying full ray-traced global illumination (RTGI), along with real-time ray-traced reflections that go beyond what most current-gen titles even attempt. This isn’t just visible in flashy car surfaces or windows, but also in more subtle areas like sunglasses, dashboards, and even watch faces. One of the most talked-about moments comes around the 28-second mark when Jason is seen driving with his car window half-down. The reflections on the glass are not only dynamically rendered but contextually correct—clouds, lighting, and beachside weather appear accurately on both glass and metal surfaces. Even his sunglasses reflect the street ahead, while his dashboard reflects back onto the windshield. These layers of subtle detail suggest Rockstar has gone to painstaking lengths to ensure every frame of this game looks like a living, breathing moment. Such technical achievement on base hardware is extremely rare and underscores just how optimized the RAGE engine has become.
Hair and skin rendering has also been massively upgraded. Gone are the rigid, card-based hair models of last-gen. Instead, Rockstar appears to be using a strand-based system, allowing for fluid, natural motion that’s especially noticeable in curly hairstyles. Lucia’s hair, for example, moves dynamically as she rolls across a bed or twirls in motion, something only the most advanced engines attempt in real-time. Skin, too, has gotten a leap in detail. Sweat beads realistically on foreheads and backs, there’s clear specular variation depending on lighting angles, and the addition of subtle details like body hair fuzz further sells the illusion of realism. There’s also meaningful secondary animation in clothing, which now ripples and shifts as characters walk or move their arms—again, minor in isolation, but together they amplify immersion.
Lighting is undoubtedly the star of the show here, and Rockstar seems to have prioritized realism over performance. Unlike titles built on Unreal Engine 5’s software-based Lumen lighting, which often suffers from temporal flicker or crawling artifacts, GTA 6’s lighting appears temporally stable. That means the game avoids distracting lighting shifts frame-to-frame, a huge win for realism. Shadows, however, seem to rely on traditional shadow mapping rather than ray tracing, which is a sensible optimization. There are a few telltale signs—like disconnected drawer handle shadows—but overall, the quality holds up well, especially for character shadows, which feature variable softness and are well-filtered in most scenes.
Still, all of this comes with a major caveat. Given the level of fidelity, it seems increasingly unlikely that GTA 6 will offer a native 60fps mode on consoles. Between RTGI, full-scale RT reflections, and the sheer size of the open world, performance overhead is massive. Digital Foundry and other analysts agree: even if a 60fps mode does appear, it would almost certainly exclude many of the graphical effects that give the game its realism. The trailer makes a 30fps cap feel like a locked-in design choice—and for now, that seems like a trade most players are willing to accept.
The technical marvels haven’t slowed fan speculation either. Over 5,000 individual frames of the trailer have been uploaded and dissected by users across Reddit and GTAForums. From reflections in bottles and sunglasses to subtle story cues, fans are piecing together every clue. One theory gaining traction is that Jason, one of the two confirmed protagonists, may be a federal agent or ex-military operative. Dialogue in the trailer hints at a prior connection to law enforcement—“Yo D, this fool a fed?”—and a scene showing Jason in SWAT-like body armor has only added fuel to the fire. Rockstar has a history of giving protagonists morally grey roles, so it wouldn’t be far-fetched for Jason to be navigating the blurred lines between the law and the criminal underworld.
Another fascinating detail comes from the in-game currency shown in the trailer. Fans noticed that the bills feature the face of Leviticus Cornwall, a character from the Red Dead Redemption series. It’s one of the clearest signs yet that Rockstar might be subtly tying together its various IPs into a shared universe. For years, small Easter eggs and overlapping references have hinted at this connection, but this visual clue is the most direct one yet. If true, it opens up rich storytelling possibilities, especially as Rockstar has shown increasing interest in serialized narratives and interconnected lore.
All of this underlines just how much is riding on GTA 6. It’s not just a new installment in a blockbuster franchise—it’s shaping up to be the definitive technical benchmark of the current generation. From lighting and physics to hair rendering and storytelling, Rockstar seems determined to deliver not just a great game, but a generational leap in what’s possible on consoles. With a year to go until release, the excitement is only growing, and fans will no doubt continue to obsess over every second of footage until then. Trailer 2 isn’t just a teaser—it’s a statement. GTA 6 is the future of open-world gaming, and everyone else is playing catch-up.
Coinbase Global Inc ($COIN):
The Senate's failure to advance the GENIUS Act marks a defining moment in the evolving relationship between U.S. politics and cryptocurrency regulation. The bill, which aimed to establish the first federal framework for stablecoins—digital assets pegged to the dollar—had been a cornerstone of the crypto industry's legislative ambitions, buoyed by massive lobbying efforts and more than $100 million in campaign contributions across party lines. But despite prior bipartisan backing, Democrats united to block the motion, citing grave concerns about conflicts of interest stemming from President Trump’s expansive crypto empire and insufficient safeguards for consumers, national security, and financial integrity.
At the heart of the legislative collapse is a web of ethical and political entanglements centered around Trump’s increasingly aggressive crypto involvement. Since re-embracing digital assets during his 2024 campaign, Trump has launched multiple ventures, including the memecoin $TRUMP and the institutional-style stablecoin USD1 via World Liberty Financial. The latter has grown to become one of the largest stablecoins in circulation, bolstered by high-profile deals like the recent $2 billion investment by an Abu Dhabi state-linked firm. This move triggered alarm bells among Senate Democrats who argue that Trump is leveraging public office to personally profit from regulatory decisions, with potentially corrupt foreign entanglements that could compromise national interests. These concerns were amplified by revelations that 75% of initial token sales from USD1 went to a Trump-affiliated company, and the family is reportedly entitled to 60% of ongoing profits.
While the GENIUS Act itself did not directly address meme coins or prohibit officials from issuing digital assets, it was widely perceived as potentially legitimizing ventures like USD1 and opening the door for political actors to exploit lax regulation for personal gain. In response, several Democrats—including Senators Warren, Murphy, Gillibrand, and Merkley—pushed for amendments that would bar presidents, lawmakers, and executive officials from creating or profiting from cryptocurrencies. These efforts were encapsulated in the "End Crypto Corruption Act," which became a central sticking point in negotiations. Republicans balked, citing constitutional questions and political overreach, and the provision was ultimately dropped—contributing to the bill's demise.
The legislative fallout underscores a broader schism in how each party views digital assets. Republicans see crypto as a vital frontier for American innovation, financial freedom, and dollar dominance. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent lamented the missed opportunity, warning that the U.S. risks falling behind as crypto innovation moves offshore. Democrats, meanwhile, are increasingly skeptical—not necessarily of crypto itself, but of its vulnerability to abuse, lack of oversight, and entanglement with political power. Elizabeth Warren has framed the GENIUS Act as a Trojan horse for Trump’s financial interests, arguing it weakens protections and invites regulatory arbitrage.
For the crypto industry, the consequences are both immediate and long-term. In the short term, the failure of the GENIUS Act delays the regulatory clarity that many firms—especially stablecoin issuers like Circle and Coinbase—were counting on to scale their operations and attract institutional investment. Without a framework, these firms continue to operate in a fragmented legal landscape, juggling conflicting state laws and the threat of SEC enforcement. The result is a dampening effect on U.S.-based innovation, and possibly the acceleration of efforts to domicile operations abroad in more crypto-friendly jurisdictions.
Longer-term, the vote signals that any meaningful crypto legislation in the U.S. will have to contend with the realities of partisan politics and the personal financial interests of those in power. The optics of Trump's direct involvement in projects that would be regulated under the bill created a political liability that pro-crypto Democrats could not ignore. This dynamic complicates future bipartisan cooperation on other bills, such as the forthcoming market structure legislation that aims to divide oversight responsibilities between the SEC and the CFTC. With trust fraying and public scrutiny mounting, even broadly supported reforms may struggle to gain traction unless they are accompanied by sweeping anti-corruption provisions.
Nonetheless, the rejection of the bill does not mark the end of crypto’s legislative journey in Washington. Senate Majority Leader John Thune’s motion to reconsider leaves the door open for renewed negotiations, and both parties have expressed a willingness to return to the table. Industry insiders like Coinbase’s Kara Calvert remain cautiously optimistic, arguing that the intense engagement seen this week is a necessary precondition for passing robust, durable policy. If a revised bill can thread the needle—balancing regulatory certainty, innovation incentives, and ethical guardrails—it could still emerge as a blueprint for how Washington governs digital assets in the years ahead.
For now, though, crypto remains a high-stakes political football, with the industry’s future increasingly entangled in the volatile dynamics of U.S. electoral politics. The same super PACs that helped install pro-crypto lawmakers are now preparing for 2026 with war chests exceeding $110 million. Whether this spending will tilt the legislative calculus or further inflame partisan divisions remains to be seen. But the message from Thursday’s vote is clear: without addressing the ethical shadows looming over the space—particularly those tied to the president himself—no amount of campaign cash may be enough to get a deal over the finish line. The crypto industry, once riding high on the promise of bipartisan cooperation, now finds itself navigating a far more complicated political terrain.
Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc ($CMG) & Roblox Corp ($RBLX):
Chipotle went all-in on Cinco de Mayo 2025 with one of its most elaborate digital marketing campaigns to date—combining gaming, nostalgia, and real-world rewards in a five-day blitz aimed squarely at Gen Z and Gen Alpha. The centerpiece of this effort was “Ingredient Quest,” a new game built into the Burrito Builder experience on Roblox. Launched on May 5 at 3 PM PT, the event encouraged players to collect 53 virtual cards—each representing one of Chipotle’s real ingredients—in exchange for a shot at winning a free entrée. The first 50,000 users to complete the collection unlock a digital code for a burrito, burrito bowl, quesadilla, tacos, or salad, redeemable through the Chipotle app or website.
This isn’t Chipotle’s first foray into Roblox. The brand has previously used the platform to great effect, dating back to its 2021 Halloween "Boorito Maze" promotion, which saw overwhelming traffic and crashed servers due to demand for free food giveaways. With Ingredient Quest, Chipotle is once again leaning into the gamification of its brand identity—but this time through the lens of collectible culture. Drawing inspiration from the current boom in trading card mania, the game taps into the thrill of “pulling” rare cards, a format that dominates TikTok and YouTube with millions of views. Players began with a starter pack of five cards and rolled in-game burritos to earn “Burrito Bucks,” which they can spend on additional card packs. Forty of the 53 ingredient cards can be found this way, while the remaining eight are scattered in a virtual scavenger hunt inside the game.
But the Roblox integration is just part of a broader Cinco de Mayo push. Chipotle ran several promotions across its digital platforms to drive sales and engagement. From May 1 to 5, users could get $0 delivery with promo code “DELIVER,” while from May 3 to 5, they could claim free chips and Queso Blanco with the code “CINCO25.” All deals were exclusive to the Chipotle app and website and were strategically timed to drive app usage, reward redemptions, and deeper customer loyalty in what the company admits is typically a softer sales season.
This marketing initiative follows a difficult first quarter for Chipotle, where same-store sales dipped 0.4%—the company’s first decline since 2020. CEO Scott Boatwright said last week that the company will be “meaningfully ramping up” marketing spend through the summer to offset softness tied to economic volatility and tariff impacts. Ingredient Quest is a vivid example of that strategy: it’s not just a gamified giveaway, but a multi-pronged engagement tactic that drives traffic to both digital and physical storefronts while reinforcing Chipotle’s core message—real ingredients and responsible sourcing. According to the company, in 2024 alone, it sourced over 47 million pounds of local produce and remains one of the only restaurant brands of its size to own and operate all its locations in North America and Europe.
Importantly, Ingredient Quest serves a dual purpose beyond just sales: it educates Gen Z consumers—Chipotle’s most prized demographic—about the brand’s ingredient integrity in a format that is inherently shareable and social. Trading card nostalgia and Roblox’s massive youth user base form a potent mix, and Chipotle’s decision to anchor its biggest promotional push of the year in this cultural zeitgeist underscores how seriously it takes its role as a digitally native QSR brand.
Walt Disney Co ($DIS):
Disney has officially announced its first new theme park in over a decade—Disneyland Abu Dhabi, a massive new resort project set to rise on Yas Island in the United Arab Emirates. The announcement was made by Disney CEO Bob Iger during the company’s quarterly earnings call on May 7, 2025, a call Iger notably joined from the UAE itself. This new park will be developed in partnership with Miral, the state-backed developer behind Yas Island’s current attractions, and is being described as “authentically Disney and distinctly Emirati.” But what truly makes this project stand out is the staggering price tag—over $10 billion—and the fact that Disney will not be paying a cent toward construction. Instead, Miral will finance and build the entire park, while Disney provides the intellectual property, creative leadership, and operational oversight through its Imagineering division.
Positioned to be more ambitious than anything Disney has ever built, the Abu Dhabi resort will feature a wide range of attractions, themed hotels, immersive storytelling experiences, retail offerings, and waterfront integration that takes advantage of the site’s unique geography. Josh D’Amaro, Chair of Disney Experiences, emphasized that the park will be “larger than anything that’s currently here now,” referring to existing attractions on Yas Island such as SeaWorld Abu Dhabi, Warner Bros. World, and Ferrari World. The new park will pull water directly into its design and make use of both indoor and outdoor spaces to adapt to the UAE’s climate, promising a futuristic park experience that blends Disney’s iconic storytelling with local culture and architecture.
The deal mirrors Disney’s highly successful arrangement with Oriental Land Company in Japan, which operates Tokyo Disney Resort. By licensing its brand and IP while offloading capital and operational risk, Disney stands to collect ongoing royalties and fees without the multi-billion-dollar burden typically associated with theme park expansion. That model is a financial win for Disney at a time when the company is emphasizing fiscal discipline amid streaming sector volatility and box office uncertainty. In fact, Disney’s “Experiences” division, which includes parks and resorts, remains its most profitable arm—posting $2.5 billion in operating income last quarter, outpacing both its media and sports businesses.
The park is part of a larger effort by Abu Dhabi to cement its place as a global tourism hub. Yas Island alone drew 38 million visits in 2024, with hotel occupancy peaking at 90% during the summer. The UAE, currently the fastest-recovering tourism market post-pandemic, sits within a four-hour flight of one-third of the world’s population. Disney’s arrival is expected to supercharge this trend, with experts estimating the park could contribute approximately 10 billion dirhams (~$2.7 billion USD) annually to the UAE’s economy once operational. Construction is expected to create over 20,000 jobs, with another 10,000 permanent roles once the park opens—currently projected for the early 2030s.
Theme park industry insiders believe the ripple effect won’t stop with Disney. Universal Studios, which previously shelved a Dubai park during the 2009 financial crisis, is now widely expected to re-enter the Middle East market. Analysts say Universal will “never allow Disney to be the only one” in the region, with potential new developments speculated for Saudi Arabia or India. Some have even suggested that the Abu Dhabi Disney park could accelerate investment in Universal’s rumored project near Delhi.
While Disney hasn’t revealed all the details, the company has made it clear that this is not a scaled-down experience—it’s a flagship park for an entirely new audience. D’Amaro and Iger both stressed that millions of potential guests in the region have long wanted to engage with Disney parks but have lacked access. This new resort will meet that demand and likely redefine what Disney means to a global audience. With a breathtaking waterfront site, architectural ambition, and deep integration of Emirati culture, Disneyland Abu Dhabi is shaping up to be one of the most significant projects in Disney’s nearly 100-year history—and a clear signal that the company sees the Middle East not just as a market for content, but as a cornerstone for future growth.
Apple Inc ($AAPL) & Alphabet Inc. ($GOOG):
In a rare collision between tech giants, Apple has positioned itself in a pivotal role in the U.S. government’s antitrust case against Google — and in doing so, it may be quietly undermining Google's dominance in search to protect its own lucrative interests. The courtroom drama revolves around Google’s annual $20 billion payment to Apple for making Google Search the default engine on Safari, a deal that accounted for nearly 18% of Apple’s pre-tax profit in 2022. With the Department of Justice pushing for remedies that could eliminate such exclusive arrangements, Apple has now gone on the offensive to try and preserve that revenue stream — even if it means painting Google as vulnerable and no longer dominant.
Apple's senior VP of Services, Eddy Cue, testified last week that Google searches via Safari declined last month for the first time in over two decades. He attributed this dip to the growing popularity of AI-based search alternatives like ChatGPT, Perplexity, and Claude, arguing that this signals “true competition” finally arriving in the search market. The implication is clear: if Google is losing share due to innovation, then the monopoly label no longer holds — and there’s no need to sever its payment deal with Apple.
But the narrative is more complex than it appears. Hours after Cue’s testimony — which sent Alphabet’s shares tumbling 7.3%, erasing about $150 billion in market value — Google countered with its own carefully worded statement, claiming that search queries from Apple devices are still rising overall. This means that while Safari usage may be down, users are still turning to Google — just via other channels like the Google app, Chrome, or even third-party iOS integrations. In other words, Apple may be technically right, but only within the narrow context of Safari, while Google is also right, speaking to broader usage patterns.
What’s at stake is far more than a payment agreement. For Google, this trial is about preserving its search monopoly moat — the lifeblood of its advertising empire. The DOJ has proposed aggressive remedies, including not only banning default search payments but also potentially forcing Google to share its search and ad index data with competitors, something that could dramatically level the playing field for emerging AI challengers. Apple, sensing this shift, submitted a “friend of the court” brief urging the court to prioritize data access over killing default deals, clearly hoping to protect its $20 billion windfall while redirecting regulatory focus elsewhere.
At the same time, Apple is preparing for a post-Google world. Cue confirmed that Apple is “actively looking” into adding AI-native search engines like OpenAI and Perplexity to Safari in the near future. This would represent a fundamental shift in Apple’s search strategy — not only diversifying user options but possibly laying the groundwork for an eventual first-party search solution, or a deeper integration of AI-powered tools at the operating system level.
For Alphabet, the risks are mounting. Even if Google wins this round in court or negotiates a settlement, the mere erosion of default dominance on iOS — the most valuable real estate in mobile — threatens long-term revenue and user lock-in. AI competitors don’t need to overtake Google overnight; they just need enough traction to chip away at the margins of behavior, particularly among younger users who increasingly skip Google in favor of direct answers from AI tools.
We are witnessing the early stages of a paradigm shift in how users discover information online. Apple sees this and is playing both sides — signaling support for open competition to regulators while working to ensure it remains the gatekeeper of user attention. Google, meanwhile, is racing to defend its turf, building AI tools like Gemini and AI Overviews into Search, even as public trust in generative AI remains fragile.
The fallout from this courtroom battle will determine whether the Google-Apple search duopoly endures — or whether AI-driven discovery platforms usher in a more fragmented, competitive, and innovative future. Either way, Apple is hedging its bets. And if that comes at Google's expense, it’s a price Cupertino seems more than willing to pay.
Mattel Inc ($MAT):
In a move that’s equal parts headline-grabbing and economically consequential, President Donald Trump has ignited controversy by threatening to slap a 100% tariff on Mattel, the American toy giant behind Hot Wheels and Barbie. The comments, made during an Oval Office press session, came as Mattel reiterated that it would not move its manufacturing to the U.S., even amid escalating tariffs on Chinese imports. Instead, Mattel is shifting production to other lower-cost countries to keep prices manageable — a position that didn’t sit well with Trump, who responded with a public broadside: “We’ll put a 100% tariff on his toys, and he won’t sell one toy in the United States, and that’s their biggest market.”
The president’s remarks — which bizarrely referred to Mattel as a “country” — were sparked by CEO Ynon Kreiz’s comments on CNBC, where he said U.S.-based toy manufacturing wasn’t viable due to cost and supply chain realities. Kreiz made clear that only 20% of Mattel's production is in China, and that the company was already diversifying its manufacturing footprint, but not bringing it stateside. The backdrop is Trump’s existing 145% blanket tariff on Chinese imports, a policy that has already pushed toymakers like Mattel to raise U.S. prices to compensate for higher input costs.
While Trump’s fixation on dolls and toys — repeatedly claiming that American children don’t need “30 dolls” — may seem like rhetorical filler, the consequences of his threats are very real. Tariffs at the proposed 100% level would double the retail price of Barbie, Hot Wheels, and other Mattel products, hammering lower- and middle-income families during back-to-school and holiday seasons. Mattel, which depends on the U.S. for the lion’s share of its sales, would face enormous pressure from retailers and customers alike.
This represents more than a tariff spat — it’s a direct threat to one of America’s iconic consumer brands based on where it chooses to manufacture. Unlike tariffs that broadly target sectors or countries, this would be a precedent-setting company-specific import penalty, signaling that any business drawing Trump’s ire could find itself in the crosshairs. This kind of economic interventionism—where individual CEOs are publicly singled out and punished—heightens fears of executive overreach, trade volatility, and crony capitalism. It also suggests that Trump’s second-term trade strategy could be far more personal and unpredictable than his first.
Meanwhile, Trump’s own trade framework with the UK is offering tariff breaks to ultra-luxury car brands like Rolls-Royce and Aston Martin, even as affordable toys made for American children face the tariff guillotine. Critics, including billionaire donor Ken Griffin, have lambasted the policy as a “painfully regressive tax” that punishes working-class consumers while rewarding elites. And with Mattel warning that tariffs could disrupt holiday inventory and increase toy prices further, the clash between populist rhetoric and populist impact is becoming increasingly stark.
The broader takeaway for investors and policy observers is this: tariffs are back on the table as a central plank of Trump’s economic strategy, but this time, they’re coming with a sharper edge and a clearer political narrative. The Mattel threat serves both as a warning shot and a case study. As Trump blends culture war themes with trade war tactics — and uses tariffs to dictate corporate behavior — companies like Mattel, Hasbro, and others dependent on global supply chains may need to brace for not just economic disruption, but reputational warfare too.
Advanced Micro Devices Inc ($AMD) & NVIDIA Corp ($NVDA):
In a major reversal of U.S. trade and technology policy, President Donald Trump announced plans to rescind the Biden-era framework that tightly regulated the export of advanced artificial intelligence chips — a move that could dramatically reshape global access to cutting-edge semiconductors and shift the power balance in the AI race. The Biden rule, set to take effect on May 15, 2025, would have enforced a strict three-tiered system restricting chip exports based on a country’s strategic alignment, with the intent of keeping powerful AI tools out of the hands of adversaries like China and Russia. Instead, Trump’s administration is preparing to implement a new global licensing approach that aims to “unleash American innovation” and broaden the reach of U.S. tech giants like Nvidia, AMD, and Microsoft.
The Biden framework divided the world into three export tiers: close allies like Japan and the UK would face minimal restrictions, while 120 “middle-tier” countries such as Malaysia and Brazil would face quantitative caps. Countries like China, Russia, and Iran fell into the third tier, banned entirely from accessing U.S. AI hardware. The system was designed to guard against the backdoor proliferation of American AI capabilities into adversarial hands — but critics, including top executives and Republican lawmakers, argued it was unwieldy and damaging to the commercial interests of U.S. firms.
Trump’s alternative seeks to streamline regulation by abandoning the tier model in favor of a more flexible, deal-driven licensing regime negotiated directly with countries. The shift comes just as Trump prepares for a Middle East visit, where nations like the UAE and Saudi Arabia — frustrated by the export limits — are expected to negotiate favorable access to American AI chips. The UAE, in particular, has pledged to invest up to $1.4 trillion in U.S. tech and infrastructure, and Trump has indicated the groundwork for a bilateral AI chip agreement could be laid during his upcoming trip.
Nvidia, the dominant global player in AI chip production, is among the biggest potential winners from the policy pivot. The company has long opposed sweeping export bans, arguing they stifle innovation and close off vast markets. China alone accounted for $17 billion of Nvidia’s revenue in the most recent fiscal year — a number expected to soar to $50 billion in the coming years. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang, who visited Beijing just weeks ago to reinforce ties with key customers, said missing out on the Chinese AI boom would be a “tremendous loss” for the U.S. economy and its semiconductor workforce.
Despite the policy reversal, the Trump administration is not abandoning export controls entirely. It has made clear that enforcement will remain robust, especially toward countries seen to be funneling chips into China. Sources suggest future controls could target intermediary nations like Malaysia or Thailand if they’re suspected of diversion. At the same time, industry stakeholders await details on what enforcement mechanisms the new licensing regime will include, especially in the absence of a tiered system.
The announcement has generated sharp divisions across Washington and the tech sector. Tech giants like Microsoft and AMD welcomed the rollback, saying it will speed up AI innovation, reduce regulatory friction, and bolster America’s edge in global AI leadership. OpenAI CEO Sam Altman, testifying at a Senate hearing on AI regulation, also emphasized the need for accelerated infrastructure deployment. Altman praised Apple’s $500 billion U.S. tech expansion, which includes what he called “the world’s largest AI training facility” in Houston.
However, national security hawks and some AI researchers warn that scrapping the Biden controls without a strong replacement risks unleashing U.S. AI capabilities into hostile or unstable regions. Companies like Anthropic have lobbied for maintaining strict protections around model weights and training data to preserve the U.S. technological edge. There are also ethical concerns about AI proliferation, with lawmakers pressing Altman and others over the potential for harm to children, misinformation risks, and copyright violations.
The political stakes are high. Trump’s stance on AI chips aligns with his broader strategy to foster U.S. tech manufacturing while limiting China’s ascent, but with more emphasis on private-sector expansion and less on rigid state controls. This mirrors his approach in other tech areas, including pushing Apple, TSMC, and others to expand domestic facilities. Trump’s Commerce Department has framed the Biden rule as “unworkable” and a barrier to innovation, promising that the new system will maintain necessary safeguards while reducing compliance burdens.
Internationally, the decision will send ripple effects through geopolitical relationships and the global supply chain. Middle-tier countries like India, the UAE, and Vietnam — which had faced new caps under the Biden rule — are likely to benefit from greater access to high-performance chips, potentially accelerating their domestic AI initiatives. Meanwhile, China, which remains firmly in the crosshairs of U.S. export restrictions, may still find its supply chain constrained. Yet Nvidia’s plan to launch a downgraded H20 chip for the Chinese market in July suggests firms are actively seeking workarounds to tap into China’s fast-growing AI demand.
The real question now is whether the Trump administration can implement a licensing framework that both enables commercial growth and withstands national security scrutiny. While the details remain sparse, the administration has hinted that executive orders or new regulations will replace the Biden rule, with announcements expected in the coming weeks. Until then, AI chipmakers and foreign governments are watching closely — because in the global AI arms race, who gets the chips will help decide who leads the future.